Information on the long-term prognosis of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is limited. We sought to describe the long-term morbidity and mortality of patients with NAFLD with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis.

In the NAFLD cohort, followed-up for 85.6 months mean (range 6-297), there were 48 (19.4%) liver-related complications and 33 (13.4%) deaths or liver transplants. In the HCV cohort, followed-up for 74.9 months mean (range 6-238), there were 47 (16.7%) liver-related complications and 25 (9.4%) deaths or liver transplants. When adjusting for baseline differences in age and gender, the cumulative incidence of liver-related complications was lower in the NAFLD than the HCV cohort (p=0.03), including incident hepatocellular cancer (6 vs 18; p=0.03), but that of cardiovascular events (p=0.17) and overall mortality (p=0.6) was similar in both groups. In the NAFLD cohort, platelet count, stage 4 fibrosis, and serum levels of cholesterol and ALT were associated with liver-related complications; an AST/ALT ratio <1 and older age were associated with overall mortality; and higher serum bilirubin levels and stage 4 fibrosis were associated with liver-related mortality.

Conclusions:
Patients with NAFLD with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis have lower rates of liver-related complications and hepatocellular cancer than corresponding patients with HCV infection, but similar overall mortality. Some clinical and laboratory features predict outcomes in patients with NAFLD. (HEPATOLOGY 2011.)

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